The U.S. under Donald Trump is seen as more of a threat than an ally, according to a new POLITICO Pulse survey of six major EU countries.

Since returning to power in January 2025, Trump has questioned Washington’s commitment to NATO, threatened to annex Greenland and Canada, hit allies with tariffs and launched a war with Iran that European countries refused to join.

Only 12 percent of those polled in March in Poland, Spain, Belgium, France, Germany and Italy saw America as a close ally while 36 percent saw it as a threat. By contrast, China was seen as a threat by 29 percent of those polled across the six countries.

At the national level, the threat from Washington outranked Beijing in four countries, with only respondents in France and Poland perceiving the threat from China to be higher.

Signaling a hardening of views toward the U.S., the poll also pointed to a deepening contradiction at the heart of European security politics. Voters want Europe to be better armed and more self-reliant as trust in the U.S. erodes, but their appetite fades if defense means personal sacrifice, bigger budgets or open-ended support for Ukraine.

Russia is a clear foe — it was seen as a threat by 70 percent of all respondents.

The European Pulse survey, conducted by Cluster17 for POLITICO and beBartlet, polled 6,698 Europeans across Spain, Germany, France, Italy, Poland and Belgium from March 13 to March 21.

People in Spain were the most negative on the United States, with 51 percent saying Washington posed a threat to Europe, the highest share among those surveyed. Madrid has taken the lead in opposing the war Trump launched in February against Iran and has been scolded by the president for its low defense spending.

In Italy, 46 percent said the U.S. was a threat, a stance backed by 42 percent of Belgians, 37 percent of French respondents and 30 percent of Germans.

Poland, which borders Russia and sees the alliance with the U.S. as its key security guarantee, was the exception: Just 13 percent of respondents said the U.S. poses a risk.

The poll also showed support for greater strategic autonomy.

Across the six countries, 76 percent of respondents said they would support sending their country’s military to defend a NATO ally if attacked. Support rose to 81 percent when the scenario involved defending a fellow EU member. 

In every country polled, backing for military assistance comfortably outweighed opposition.

Support without sacrifice

But that consensus weakened sharply when the question turned to personal involvement.

Just 19 percent of respondents said they would be willing to “take up arms and fight” if their own country were attacked. Nearly half (47 percent) said they would prefer to contribute in non-combat roles such as logistics, medical aid or civil protection. Another 16 percent said they would support their country without taking part directly, while 12 percent said they would consider leaving the country.

The gap between political support for defense and individual willingness to fight underscores the challenge facing European governments as they scale up their military ambitions and grapple with recruitment shortfalls.

The survey also showed that voters broadly accept the need for a stronger European defense posture, even as they remain divided on its funding.

Across the six countries, 86 percent agreed that Europe must develop its own defense capabilities, with 56 percent strongly agreeing. Support was particularly high in Poland and Belgium (both 95 percent) and Germany (89 percent).

There was also widespread backing for deeper military integration, with 69 percent of respondents supporting the creation of a common European military force operating alongside national armies. Support ranged from 60 percent in France to 83 percent in Belgium.

Yet views diverged when it came to spending. 

Across the survey, 37 percent said their country is spending “about the right amount” on defense, while an identical share believed spending is “not enough.” At the same time, 22 percent said their country is already spending too much.

Country-level differences were pronounced. In Germany (40 percent), France (44 percent) and Spain (43 percent), respondents said defense spending should increase. In Italy, 39 percent said spending was too high — the highest level among the countries polled. Poland stood apart, with a majority (56 percent) saying current spending levels are about right.

Those views broadly track current spending levels. Poland plans to spend 4.8 percent of GDP on defense this year, the highest in NATO and far more than the other countries polled.

Ukraine support fractures

The data highlighted divisions over Europe’s support for Ukraine.

Across the six countries, 34 percent said Europe is not providing enough support to Ukraine, 31 percent said the current level is about right, and 30 percent said Europe is doing too much.

National differences again stood out. In Germany, by far the largest European aid-giver to Ukraine, 45 percent said Europe is not doing enough. In Italy, which gives the lowest share of its GDP to Ukraine in civilian and military aid of the six countries polled, according to the Kiel Support Tracker, 42 percent said Europe is providing too much support. Spain and Belgium leaned toward the “not enough” camp while France was more evenly divided.

Despite these disagreements, backing for collective defense commitments remained robust across all countries surveyed, particularly within NATO. The findings also feed into debates over conscription and civic service, as governments look for ways to expand military capacity. 

In Germany, support for some form of mandatory service was particularly high. Over three-quarters of German respondents (78 percent) supported bringing back conscription or civil service obligations, which were suspended in 2011.

After facing pushback within his coalition, however, Chancellor Friedrich Merz last year dropped plans to restore full conscription and instead pushed through a bill aimed at boosting recruitment to 203,000 active-duty troops by 2031.

Support was also strong in Belgium at 76 percent, while opinion was more divided in Italy, with 53 percent in favor, and in Spain, where 54 percent opposed the idea.

The European Pulse was conducted by Cluster17 for POLITICO and beBartlet from March 13 to 21, surveying 6,698 adults online, with at least 1,000 respondents each from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain. Results for each country were weighted to be representative on dimensions including age, gender and geography.