Russia’s army recorded no territorial gains on the front line in Ukraine in March for the first time in two and half years, AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showed.
Ukrainian forces managed to recapture 9 square kilometres in March as Moscow’s forces slowed down across the entire front line, according to the analysis. This figure excludes infiltration operations conducted by Russian forces beyond the front line, as well as advances claimed by the Russian side but neither confirmed nor denied by the ISW.
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The ISW worked with the Critical Threats Project (part of the American Enterprise Institute, or AEI), another US think-tank specialising in conflict. The Russian army has been slowing its advance since late 2025 due to counter-offensives in the southeast of the country, with 319 square kilometres of gains in January and 123 square kilometres in February, the smallest advances since April 2024.
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The ISW attributed the slowdown of the Russian army in recent months to Ukrainian counter-offensives, but also to “Russia’s ban on using Starlink terminals in Ukraine” and “the Kremlin’s efforts to restrict access to Telegram”.
The messaging app, very popular among Russians including those fighting on the front line, has been barely usable in recent months due to blocks imposed by the authorities.
As in February, Russia has lost ground on the southern section of the front line, between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where it occupied more than 400 square kilometres at the end of January. This area shrank to 200 square kilometres in February and to 144 square kilometres in March. The situation was, however, unfavourable for Kyiv further north in the Donetsk region, towards the two major regional cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
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In 2025, the Russian army made more progress in Ukraine than in the preceding 24 months. But in the first three months of 2026, Russian territorial gains were half those of the same period in 2025.
Four years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow occupies just over 19 percent of the country, the majority of which was seized during the first weeks of the conflict.
Approximately seven percent, including Crimea and areas in the Donbas region, was already under Russian or pro-Russian separatist control before the invasion.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
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