The MPLA’S crossroads

There are parties that govern and parties that build nations. The MPLA, founded on December 10, 1956, has always prided itself on belonging to the latter category. Born from the struggle against colonialism, it was structured on the promise to liberate the oppressed and build a just society, anchored in the principles of democratic socialism. This center-left ideological matrix, which places human dignity and social justice at the center of political action, was its main mobilizing force for decades.

However, the electoral reality since 1992 tells a story that deserves our utmost attention: after obtaining 53.74% of the vote in 1992 and reaching an impressive 81.64% in 2008, the party has registered a downward trend—71.84% in 2012, 61.08% in 2017, and around 51% in 2022. The numbers reveal, election after election, an electorate that is distancing itself, questioning, and no longer seems to recognize in the party it helped build the same flame of social transformation that characterized its origins.

It is in this context that the Political Agenda for 2026, with its 11 axes and 25 tasks, presents itself not only as an action plan but as a decisive test of the party’s capacity for regeneration. And it is at the heart of this agenda that the most crucial question for the immediate future arises: the choice of the Head of List for the 2027 General Elections.

Ideology as a compass, not as a museum

The second axis of the Political Agenda reaffirms democratic socialism as the fundamental ideological orientation of the MPLA. This is a sound decision, but one that requires more than rhetoric. As Samuel Huntington taught in his seminal work *Political Order in Changing Societies* (1968), the crucial factor for a successful society is not only modernization, but the capacity of political institutions to establish order and respond to the demands of citizens. Huntington argued that “government governs” when there are “strong, flexible, and coherent political institutions: efficient bureaucracies, well-organized political parties.”

Democratic socialism, as a center-left framework, cannot be a museum piece contemplated with nostalgia. It must be a living tool for interpreting the concrete problems of Angolans today: the young person seeking employment, the woman struggling for her family’s survival, the former combatant hoping for recognition, the ordinary citizen yearning for quality public services, the middle and upper-middle class yearning for financial fulfillment and a fairer tax system, the entrepreneur awaiting policies more favorable to the business environment. Reaffirming this ideological line means, above all, reaffirming a method of governance that places people at the center and uses the State as an instrument for correcting inequalities.

Political training as a vaccine against ideological emptying

The sixth axis of the Agenda assumes a particularly relevant commitment: “to intensify the political-ideological training of the Party’s militants and cadres with a view to increasing the levels of knowledge of the Party’s Politics, in proportion to the challenges that the MPLA intends to achieve, continuing with the work of performance evaluation”. This measure should not be seen as a mere bureaucratic detail; it touches on the core of the representation crisis the party faces.

When a member is unaware of their party’s history, when a cadre confuses socialism with welfare, when political action is reduced to occupying spaces instead of transforming reality, the party empties itself from within. Political-ideological training is not an academic exercise – it is the guarantee that each member becomes an ambassador capable of explaining, convincing, and mobilizing around the party’s project. It is the vaccine against self-destruction and loss of identity.

It is precisely here that what political scientist Sheri Berman, from Columbia University, identifies as a “representation gap” can take hold – a discrepancy between voters’ preferences and the profile of the policies and political demands of traditional parties. Citing Huntington, Berman recalls that “when citizens see political institutions as reluctant or unable to respond to them, the likely result is dissatisfaction and, along with it, disorder and political decay.”

The Danger of Losing Strategic Power Vision

The progressive loss of popular support since 2012 is not an accident – ​​it is a symptom of something deeper. For a ruling party, the loss of strategic power vision manifests itself in several ways, and it is important to identify them clearly.

The first symptom is short-sightedness. When decisions cease to be based on a national project and begin to be dictated by the pressures of the moment, the party transforms from a leader into a hostage. It governs to put out fires, not to build cathedrals.

The second is self-destruction. Without a clear strategic direction, the party’s energy turns inward. Factions stop debating ideas and begin to compete for spoils. A party that devours its own talents does not need external opposition – it slowly commits suicide.

The third, perhaps the most dangerous, is arrogance. Prolonged time in power can generate the “invincibility syndrome”. The party stops listening to society, ignores signs of discontent, and confuses flattery with popular support.

Hirschman’s contribution: leave or protest

To understand the consequences of this disconnect, it is useful to revisit the categories popularized by Albert Hirschman. As Berman reminds us, “when a representation gap emerges and voters are dissatisfied with the political alternatives offered to them, they have two options: leave the scene or make themselves heard.” In recent elections, we have witnessed both phenomena: voters who progressively abstain, deserting political participation, and voters who channel their discontent towards opposition forces.

The French writer Édouard Louis movingly described this process when recounting the trajectory of his working-class father: “What the elections came to mean for my father was the opportunity to fight against his feeling of invisibility (…) My father had felt abandoned by the political left.” In the void left by traditional parties, simplistic explanations and speeches of disillusionment find fertile ground.

The Choice of the Head of List: A Profile for Reconquest

It is within this context that the choice of the Head of List for the 2027 General Elections assumes absolutely fundamental importance. And here it is important to state clearly: a deep knowledge of the MPLA’s political and ideological line must be an indispensable and non-negotiable condition for choosing the candidate.

This is not a bureaucratic requirement or a statutory formality. It is a requirement for political survival. The lead candidate will be the face of the party before the nation, the main interpreter of the societal project that the MPLA proposes, the guardian of historical memory, and the builder of bridges to the future. If this candidate does not deeply master the ideological foundations of the party – what democratic socialism means, its center-left matrix, the values ​​that distinguish it, and the history that legitimizes it – how can they convince Angolans that the MPLA remains the most effective instrument for realizing their dreams?

But a deep understanding of the political and ideological line, while necessary, is not, in itself, sufficient. The contemporary Angolan context – marked by high popular expectations, a transforming economy, and an increasingly demanding electorate – imposes on the future lead candidate an additional set of qualities and skills that must be made explicit.

Vision for deepening economic reform

The candidate must possess a clear and feasible vision for deepening economic reform, placing economic diversification and boosting national production at the forefront.

The core of the development strategy. Angola cannot remain hostage to the volatility of oil prices. The Head of List will have to be the main advocate for a new economic model that values ​​what the country produces, creates internal value chains, and transforms our potential wealth into concrete benefits for the population. This requires not only technical knowledge but also the political capacity to lead the necessary structural changes, confronting vested interests and promoting a business environment that stimulates national entrepreneurship, productive investment, and continues economic diplomacy aimed at attracting foreign direct investment.

Unwavering commitment to social justice

The democratic socialist matrix of the MPLA demands that the Head of List place social justice at the center of their actions. This translates, in the immediate term, into a firm commitment to improving essential public services: quality education that prepares new generations for the challenges of the future and an accessible, humane, and efficient health system that cares for all Angolans, particularly the most vulnerable.

Improving the minimum wage, as a tool for dignifying work and stimulating domestic demand, and continuing a robust strategy for job creation, particularly among young people, are equally non-negotiable. The ultimate goal is clear: the sustained reduction of poverty, not through short-term welfare measures, but through the creation of opportunities and the empowerment of people to build their own future.

Personal and leadership qualities

Beyond politics, the profile of the lead candidate should be characterized by personal qualities that inspire trust and credibility. In a time of disillusionment with politics, transparency in the management of public affairs, unquestionable personal integrity, and an obsessive focus on serving the nation – and not on private or group interests – are crucial qualities.

The candidate should demonstrate a genuine capacity for dialogue, building bridges with different sectors of society: the political opposition, civil society, churches, the private sector, and social movements. Democratic strengthening depends on the ability to listen to and incorporate different perspectives in building majority consensus.

Equally fundamental is an explicit commitment to the independence of the judicial system and the strengthening of parliamentary institutions. An autonomous judiciary is the guarantee of citizens’ rights and the very credibility of the State. A strong, vibrant, and representative parliament is the house of democracy. The lead candidate must be the primary guarantor of these principles.

Finally, but no less importantly, it is essential that the candidate has a strategic vision for the structural fight against poverty. This is not just about mitigating its effects, but about attacking its root causes through integrated policies that combine economic growth, social inclusion, territorial development, and community empowerment. Poverty is not a natural given – it is a social construct that determined political action can and must deconstruct.

Modernization of the State and Response to Basic Needs

The Angolan context, marked by decades of challenges and transformations, calls for leadership that combines, in a balanced way, the response to the most basic needs of the population with a long-term vision for the modernization of the State. The average citizen wants a State that works: that provides them with water and electricity, that has schools and hospitals with teachers and doctors, that guarantees security and justice. But they also want a modern, efficient, unbureaucratic State that uses technology to simplify the lives of people and businesses, and that is a facilitator of development, not an obstacle.

The lead candidate for 2027 will have to be the face of this dual ambition: the outstretched hand that welcomes and solves immediate problems, and the strategic vision that builds the future.

The academic contribution: ideology as a factor of cohesion

Recent academic research has highlighted the importance of ideology in political articulation in Angola. Justin Pearce, from Stellenbosch University, observes that “the study of ideologies in African politics has been neglected,” but that “the way political leaders claim to act in the interest of specific regions” and “the articulation of political discourses directed at diverse sectors of society” are fundamental to understanding contemporary political dynamics.

In the case of the MPLA, its long history – from the anti-colonial struggle to state building, passing through the transition from Marxism-Leninism to democratic socialism in 1990/1991 – constitutes invaluable political capital. But this capital will only be effectively mobilized if the Head of List knows it, understands it, and knows how to communicate it, integrating it into a modern vision of development and social justice.

The 2026 Agenda: Intention vs. Implementation

The MPLA’s Political Agenda for 2026 defines two major priorities: strengthening the party’s internal life and preparing for the 2027 General Elections. MPLA Vice-President Mara Quiosa emphasized that the document reflects “the vision, commitment, and priorities for the MPLA to continue leading the ongoing process of political, economic, and social transformations in the country.”

Among the 11 strategic axes, the following stand out: strengthening internal unity, party discipline, the successful holding of the 9th Ordinary Congress, defending the image of the party and its leader, and supporting the Executive in implementing its governance. The Agenda also foresees the use of information technologies and social networks as instruments for mobilization and outreach to younger segments of the population.

All of this is positive. But the question is: will it be enough to reverse the trend of declining popular support? The answer depends on the ability to transform intentions into concrete actions – and the choice of the Lead Candidate, with the profile outlined here, will be the most visible test of that ability.

The challenge of winning back

Regaining popular trust will not be achieved solely through political and ideological training or the reaffirmation of democratic socialism in official documents. It will be achieved through the practical demonstration that the party remains the most effective instrument for solving the problems of the Angolan people. And this begins with the selection of a leader who authentically and profoundly embodies the values ​​and history of the MPLA, but who simultaneously presents a credible project to respond to the concrete aspirations of the population: employment, better wages, health, education, justice, and democratic participation.

The MPLA possesses, in its history, a political capital that few parties in the world have: the capital of those who fought for national liberation, who built the Angolan state, who guided the country through decades of transformation. But the capital of the past does not pay the bills of the present. As political analyst Germán Gorraiz López observed, we are currently experiencing a “loss of democratic credibility in countless governments,” fueled by a “culture of corruption” and a “democratic deficit” that undermines citizens’ trust in institutions.

Our appeal: the future waits for no one

The 2026 Political Agenda could be the turning point the MPLA needs – or it could be just another document added to others, without practical consequences. Everything will depend on the ability to execute the 25 tasks with the rigor and determination that the situation demands, and everything will depend, in a very special way, on the choice of the Head of List for 2027.

The sixth axis, by focusing on political and ideological training, attacks the root of the problem: militants and cadres who deeply understand the party’s identity and are capable of projecting it onto society. The second axis, by reaffirming democratic socialism, anchors the party in its historical center-left matrix, preventing deviations that would mischaracterize it.

But more is needed. It is necessary for MPLA militants to be in the community, listening, solving problems, and explaining. Democratic socialism must translate into concrete policies of inclusion, combating poverty, and creating opportunities. The party must recover its capacity to dream of the future, instead of limiting itself to managing the present.

Above all, the lead candidate for 2027 must be someone who deeply understands the political and ideological line of the MPLA – because only then can they be the credible face of a future project that honors the past and responds to the aspirations of the present. Someone with economic vision to diversify and produce, with social commitment to educate, care for, and dignify, with integrity to govern transparently, and with democratic capacity to strengthen institutions and engage in dialogue with all of society.

History will be merciless to those who, having everything to build a legacy, were content to merely occupy space. The MPLA faces its most important crossroads today: either it reinvents itself as a force for transformation, worthy of its 70-year history, or it will passively witness the erosion of the political capital that so many generations have built.

The future does not wait. And the Angolan people will continue to observe, evaluate, and, at the appropriate time, decide.

JOAQUIM JAIME AND WALTER FERREIRA

Political Analysts