BRUSSELS — A long-anticipated reshuffle of senior European Commission roles has stalled, as an internal promotion failed to spark a wider shake-up.

For weeks, Brussels officials had expected the appointment of Anthony Whelan, a close ally of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to lead the powerful competition department (DG COMP), would kick off the first serious round of movement across the upper ranks since von der Leyen took office in 2019.

Typically, changes at the top — particularly of influential officials — can have a significant impact on both policymaking and internal power dynamics, often triggering a cascade of job moves. But that hasn’t happened in this case and is not expected to occur any time soon, according to 12 Commission officials who are closely involved.

The main reason for the lack of a reshuffle is that Whelan’s promotion doesn’t create a vacancy in another senior job, two of the officials said. He’s moving within the same department, stepping up from a deputy director-general role.

Any wider reshuffle may now depend on a move by Sabine Weyand, who heads up the Commission’s trade department (DG Trade), six of the officials said. Her departure would unlock the next round of senior appointments, they said.

But the Commission’s top leadership ― including von der Leyen and her powerful chief-of-staff Bjoern Seibert ― wants Weyand to remain in place until at least 2027, in case new trade negotiations with the U.S. become necessary, if complications arise in implementing the Turnberry deal, two officials said.

Weyand’s blunt public remarks at a conference last summer — where she cast the EU-U.S. deal less as a real negotiation and more as a political necessity to keep Donald Trump onside — left many officials close to von der Leyen irritated, according to two senior EU officials.

But Weyand’s hand remains strong because she’s now seen as the person who knows most about the U.S. deal. “Poor Sabine, out of all deals, this one… ” the official said.

Weyand remaining in the job blocks the most likely next move. Ditte Juul Jørgensen, the Commission’s director-general for energy, is seen as Weyand’s natural successor in the trade department, according to four of the officials. One well-informed former senior official put the odds of that eventual move at “95 percent” — but only once Weyand goes.

The same pattern holds at the Commission’s highest administrative level. A vacancy for secretary-general — one of the most powerful roles in Brussels, currently held by Ilze Juhansone — could trigger system-wide movement.

Names such as Céline Gauer, currently director-general for reform and investment, are circulating as potential candidates to take a post once held by Martin Selmayr, according to three officials.

Yet no such opening is imminent. Juhansone remains firmly in place and is widely seen as a close extension of von der Leyen’s cabinet — and a guarantor of centralized control.

European Commission Secretary-General Ilze Juhansone arrives for a meeting at the Berlaymont in July 2024. | Thierry Monasse/Getty Images

As one official put it: “It’s harder to leave the president’s cabinet than to get into it.”

Officials close to von der Leyen expect continuity at the top. The Secretariat-General — along with a handful of other key departments such as the Legal Service and DG Communication — reports directly to the president, reinforcing her grip on the administration. Former secretary-general Catherine Day served for a decade, from 2005 to 2015.

The stagnation extends across multiple departments. Sandra Gallina, the Commission’s Covid-19 vaccine negotiator, is expected to retire, potentially leaving a leadership gap in the health department, DG Sante — though the timing remains unclear.

Elsewhere, the Middle East and North Africa department remains in limbo following the departure of Stefano Sannino, with an acting director likely to remain in place. Disagreements between Commissioner for the Mediterranean Dubravka Šuica, who politically oversees the department, and von der Leyen’s office are holding up a permanent appointment, according to one senior EU official.

DG Connect, responsible for shaping digital and tech policies such as DMA and DSA, is one of the Commission’s largest and most sensitive departments. Director-General Roberto Viola is keen to extend his tenure, even as an internal rivalry intensifies between his deputies in the service, Renate Nikolay and Despina Spanou, over eventual succession, according to two Commission officials.

All officials mentioned were offered the opportunity to comment. The Commission’s spokesperson service declined, while Viola, through a spokesperson, said “no comment.”