A new EU tax on online gambling could generate €13.3 billion in fresh revenue for the bloc’s next seven-year budget, the European Commission forecast in a document seen by POLITICO.

Potential levies on crypto firms and U.S. tech giants such as Google and Amazon are estimated to yield around €20 billion and €35 billion, respectively, throughout the seven-year budget cycle, according to the document shared by the EU executive with national governments and the European Parliament on Thursday.

The Commission is assessing revenue estimates that could be raised by potential new EU-wide taxes on online gambling, crypto firms and digital firms, as the bloc struggles to reach a deal on how to finance the EU’s common cash pot from 2028 to 2034.

The European Parliament proposed the levies on gambling, crypto and digital giants in a bid to break months of deadlock over the Commission’s original package of EU taxes. But the plan is likely to face opposition which could prevent it from becoming a reality.

The Commission estimates a potential tax on large digital companies, charged at 3 percent on certain revenue streams, would generate €5 billion per year across the EU. The tax, which would mostly affect American companies, is likely to face pushback from EU governments fearful of retaliation from the U.S.

The Commission used existing digital taxes in Italy, Spain and France to produce the EU-wide estimate.

Meanwhile, a tax of 3 percent on the net turnover of the online gambling sector could generate an estimated €1.9 billion per year.

But that would be a hard sell for Malta, as the betting sector accounts for a significant share of its business activity.

Finally, the Commission estimated that a 0.1 percent tax rate on the value of crypto transactions would yield between €3 billion and €4 billion per year, approximately, for the EU budget. Meanwhile, a crypto capital gains tax could generate between €1 billion and €2.4 billion per year.

The Commission, however, said the revenue potential of crypto taxes is hard to estimate due to the lack of data.

Tough budget equation

The Commission’s new analysis adds an additional layer of complexity to budget negotiations among EU governments. Cyprus, which holds the Council’s six-monthly rotating presidency, is set to present a new budget breakdown with revised numbers and spending allocations around June 10.

The EU’s taxes — known as “own resources” — require unanimous approval among the bloc’s 27 governments.

The additional revenue is designed to finance the EU’s common cash pot from 2028 to 2034, which totals almost €2 trillion, including repayments of the EU’s post-Covid joint debt program.

The Commission’s original proposal from July included a tax on carbon imports into the EU, known as CBAM, as well as taxes on carbon emissions, non-recycled electronic waste, tobacco revenues and corporate profits.

In a setback for the EU executive, each proposed new tax — with the exception of CBAM — has faced strong opposition in Council. France has signaled that it will not agree to a budget deal that does not include significant new own resources.

To break the deadlock, several EU leaders asked the Commission to explore Parliament’s options during an informal summit in Cyprus in April.

This article has been updated.